LRCX Q4 2025: Margins to 48%; ALD Moly Leads Packaging Gains
- Leadership in Advanced ALD Moly Technology: Lam Research is the only company with ALD Moly tools already in production in foundry logic, positioning it to capture significant market share as advanced nodes transition away from tungsten.
- Robust Growth in Advanced Packaging and Memory Upgrades: The discussion highlighted strong momentum in advanced packaging—with increased complexity (e.g., 3D packaging) and HBM evolution driving demand—combined with extensive spending on NAND upgrades, supporting a multi-year tailwind for the companies' systems revenue.
- Resilient Demand and Customer Diversification: The Q&A underscored increasing customer spending across diverse segments and geographies (including multinational growth in China and DRAM momentum), which suggests a sustained, strong customer demand backdrop that reinforces a bullish view for future growth.
- Margin Pressure: Guidance for December points to lower gross margins (around 48%) versus the record 50.3% in June due to a softer product and customer mix combined with increased tariff headwinds.
- Regional Mix Volatility: The Q&A highlighted uncertainties regarding China revenue, with stronger performance in June largely driven by multinational spending that may normalize or retract in December, increasing country-specific risk.
- Uncertain Future Growth: There is a lack of definitive forward guidance for 2026 and significant reliance on volatile segments like DRAM and CSBG, leaving questions about sustained momentum amid technology transition challenges.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q1 2026 | $5 billion | $5.2 billion | raised |
Gross Margin | Q1 2026 | 49.5% | 50% | raised |
Operating Margin | Q1 2026 | 33.5% | 34% | raised |
EPS | Q1 2026 | $1.20 | $1.20 | no change |
Share Count | Q1 2026 | Approximately 1.8 billion shares | Approximately 1.27 billion shares | lowered |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Advanced Packaging | Highlighted in Q3 for its role in foundry logic with strong leadership in new product roadmaps and in Q2 for revenue growth driven by HBM and packaging transitions | In Q4, extensively discussed as a critical growth driver with improvements in memory density, bandwidth, and market share gains | Consistent focus with expanding complexity and application breadth, maintaining a positive outlook |
Memory Technologies Growth | Discussed in Q3 with evolving percentages in DRAM and nonvolatile segments and in Q2 with emphasis on NAND upgrades and HBM momentum | In Q4, detailed emphasis on upgrades (e.g., HBM speed, cryo etching for QLC) reinforcing growth driven by AI demands | Steady, positive emphasis on technological upgrades reinforcing growth amid evolving AI needs |
NAND Market Recovery and Upgrade Opportunities | Q3 earnings emphasized the upgrade cycle from 128-layer to 2xx+ layers with a long-term $40B upgrade opportunity and Q2 highlighted migration spending and cryo etching benefits | Q4 featured strong recovery signals, leveraging AI-driven demands and detailed upgrade opportunities including investment figures | Persistent and expanding, with consistent recognition of upgrade cycles as a key revenue driver |
Molybdenum Technology Advancements | Q3 mentioned the ALTUS Halo system cutting resistance for 3D NAND and Q2 focused on the molybdenum transition in NAND upgrades | Q4 emphasized ALD Moly leadership, unique multi-station solutions, and key customer wins supporting a growing SAM | Consistent technological leadership with growing adoption and expanding impact on advanced nodes |
Tool Technology Innovation | In Q3, new etch systems (Akara) and advances in dry resist were highlighted and Q2 showcased Cryo 3.0 and Aether dry resist breakthroughs driving performance improvements | Q4 spotlighted innovations with the Aqara conductor etch tool, HALO ALD Moly tool, and dry resist technologies addressing critical challenges | Continuous innovation with strong product wins, reinforcing market position through differentiated solutions |
Agile Global Manufacturing and Supply Chain Flexibility | Q3 discussed a flexible global manufacturing footprint and supply chain agility across multiple regions to mitigate tariffs and disruptions | No mention in Q4 | Topic no longer mentioned in the current period, indicating a possible de‐emphasis or shift in focus |
Tariff, Export Controls, and Geopolitical Supply Chain Risks | Q3 covered flexible manufacturing to offset tariffs and also addressed export controls and geopolitical risks and Q2 detailed China export controls impacting revenue | Q4 primarily focused on increased tariffs impacting margins, with export controls less explicitly mentioned | Shift in emphasis toward tariffs as the dominant risk factor, with less discussion on export controls |
Customer Demand Dynamics and Concentration Risks | Q3 highlighted customer planning, China revenue concentration, and lumpy demand dynamics and Q2 discussed customer concentration headwinds and geographic mix concerns | Q4 continued to stress significant China demand growth, AI-driven demand, mixed customer segments, and concentration in key sectors | Ongoing concern with evolving dynamics as AI and shifting regional mixes add both opportunity and risk |
Margin Pressure and Gross Margin Vulnerabilities | Q3 noted variability from customer mix and tariff impacts with margins at around 49% and anticipated fluctuations and Q2 pointed to headwinds from customer concentration affecting margins | Q4 reported record gross margins (50.3%) this quarter but warned of potential declines (to 48%) due to unfavorable mix and rising tariffs | Consistent performance with current record margins tempered by caution over near-term vulnerabilities |
Uncertainty in Future Growth & Dependence on Technology Upgrade Cycles | Q3 linked future growth to customer tech roadmaps and a robust NAND upgrade cycle, addressing macro uncertainties and Q2 emphasized reliance on tech migration and the $40B NAND upgrade opportunity amid uncertain upgrade rates | Q4 acknowledged near-term uncertainty in overall WFE spending but stressed confidence in outperforming through technology upgrades and a robust upgrade cycle | Remains a key driver with optimistic long-term prospects while acknowledging near-term unpredictability |
Increasing Operating Expenses from R&D and Digital Transformation Investments | Q3 reported increased R&D spending (70% of operating expenses) driven by roadmap differentiation and digital initiatives and Q2 noted moderate operating cost increases tied to higher R&D investments and digital transformation efforts | Not specifically mentioned in Q4 | Topic is no longer highlighted in the current period, possibly indicating stabilization or reduced focus in recent commentary |
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Margin Outlook
Q: What gross margin is expected in December?
A: Management expects gross margins to normalize to around 48% in December due to a softer mix and higher tariff headwinds, after posting record margins in June. -
Revenue Outlook
Q: Will December revenue be down?
A: Leaders indicated that December’s revenue is likely to mirror the lower level seen in March, reflecting a normal seasonal slowdown despite strong results earlier in the year. -
Tech Drivers
Q: What drives tool business outperformance?
A: Executives highlighted key drivers such as advanced foundry logic, ALD Moly, selective etch, and enhanced advanced packaging processes that are propelling a growth rate roughly three times that of overall wafer spend. -
China Business
Q: How did China revenue perform?
A: The call noted strong performance in China with multinational customers growing over 90% quarter-over-quarter, even as domestic challenges persist. -
Moly Share
Q: What is the outlook on ALD Moly share?
A: Management stressed that, as the only firm with production ALD Moly in foundry logic, their first‐mover advantage should support a leading market share in Moly transitions. -
Advanced Packaging
Q: How significant is advanced packaging for growth?
A: The team sees advanced packaging as a robust opportunity, targeting a move from last year’s $1B to over $3B in total opportunity, driven by complex applications and strong customer adoption.
Research analysts covering LAM RESEARCH.