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    LAM RESEARCH (LRCX)

    LRCX Q4 2025: Margins to 48%; ALD Moly Leads Packaging Gains

    Reported on Jul 31, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$99.09Last close (Jul 30, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$91.02Open (Jul 31, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-8.07(-8.14%)
    • Leadership in Advanced ALD Moly Technology: Lam Research is the only company with ALD Moly tools already in production in foundry logic, positioning it to capture significant market share as advanced nodes transition away from tungsten.
    • Robust Growth in Advanced Packaging and Memory Upgrades: The discussion highlighted strong momentum in advanced packaging—with increased complexity (e.g., 3D packaging) and HBM evolution driving demand—combined with extensive spending on NAND upgrades, supporting a multi-year tailwind for the companies' systems revenue.
    • Resilient Demand and Customer Diversification: The Q&A underscored increasing customer spending across diverse segments and geographies (including multinational growth in China and DRAM momentum), which suggests a sustained, strong customer demand backdrop that reinforces a bullish view for future growth.
    • Margin Pressure: Guidance for December points to lower gross margins (around 48%) versus the record 50.3% in June due to a softer product and customer mix combined with increased tariff headwinds.
    • Regional Mix Volatility: The Q&A highlighted uncertainties regarding China revenue, with stronger performance in June largely driven by multinational spending that may normalize or retract in December, increasing country-specific risk.
    • Uncertain Future Growth: There is a lack of definitive forward guidance for 2026 and significant reliance on volatile segments like DRAM and CSBG, leaving questions about sustained momentum amid technology transition challenges.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    Q1 2026

    $5 billion

    $5.2 billion

    raised

    Gross Margin

    Q1 2026

    49.5%

    50%

    raised

    Operating Margin

    Q1 2026

    33.5%

    34%

    raised

    EPS

    Q1 2026

    $1.20

    $1.20

    no change

    Share Count

    Q1 2026

    Approximately 1.8 billion shares

    Approximately 1.27 billion shares

    lowered

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Advanced Packaging

    Highlighted in Q3 for its role in foundry logic with strong leadership in new product roadmaps and in Q2 for revenue growth driven by HBM and packaging transitions

    In Q4, extensively discussed as a critical growth driver with improvements in memory density, bandwidth, and market share gains

    Consistent focus with expanding complexity and application breadth, maintaining a positive outlook

    Memory Technologies Growth

    Discussed in Q3 with evolving percentages in DRAM and nonvolatile segments and in Q2 with emphasis on NAND upgrades and HBM momentum

    In Q4, detailed emphasis on upgrades (e.g., HBM speed, cryo etching for QLC) reinforcing growth driven by AI demands

    Steady, positive emphasis on technological upgrades reinforcing growth amid evolving AI needs

    NAND Market Recovery and Upgrade Opportunities

    Q3 earnings emphasized the upgrade cycle from 128-layer to 2xx+ layers with a long-term $40B upgrade opportunity and Q2 highlighted migration spending and cryo etching benefits

    Q4 featured strong recovery signals, leveraging AI-driven demands and detailed upgrade opportunities including investment figures

    Persistent and expanding, with consistent recognition of upgrade cycles as a key revenue driver

    Molybdenum Technology Advancements

    Q3 mentioned the ALTUS Halo system cutting resistance for 3D NAND and Q2 focused on the molybdenum transition in NAND upgrades

    Q4 emphasized ALD Moly leadership, unique multi-station solutions, and key customer wins supporting a growing SAM

    Consistent technological leadership with growing adoption and expanding impact on advanced nodes

    Tool Technology Innovation

    In Q3, new etch systems (Akara) and advances in dry resist were highlighted and Q2 showcased Cryo 3.0 and Aether dry resist breakthroughs driving performance improvements

    Q4 spotlighted innovations with the Aqara conductor etch tool, HALO ALD Moly tool, and dry resist technologies addressing critical challenges

    Continuous innovation with strong product wins, reinforcing market position through differentiated solutions

    Agile Global Manufacturing and Supply Chain Flexibility

    Q3 discussed a flexible global manufacturing footprint and supply chain agility across multiple regions to mitigate tariffs and disruptions

    No mention in Q4

    Topic no longer mentioned in the current period, indicating a possible de‐emphasis or shift in focus

    Tariff, Export Controls, and Geopolitical Supply Chain Risks

    Q3 covered flexible manufacturing to offset tariffs and also addressed export controls and geopolitical risks and Q2 detailed China export controls impacting revenue

    Q4 primarily focused on increased tariffs impacting margins, with export controls less explicitly mentioned

    Shift in emphasis toward tariffs as the dominant risk factor, with less discussion on export controls

    Customer Demand Dynamics and Concentration Risks

    Q3 highlighted customer planning, China revenue concentration, and lumpy demand dynamics and Q2 discussed customer concentration headwinds and geographic mix concerns

    Q4 continued to stress significant China demand growth, AI-driven demand, mixed customer segments, and concentration in key sectors

    Ongoing concern with evolving dynamics as AI and shifting regional mixes add both opportunity and risk

    Margin Pressure and Gross Margin Vulnerabilities

    Q3 noted variability from customer mix and tariff impacts with margins at around 49% and anticipated fluctuations and Q2 pointed to headwinds from customer concentration affecting margins

    Q4 reported record gross margins (50.3%) this quarter but warned of potential declines (to 48%) due to unfavorable mix and rising tariffs

    Consistent performance with current record margins tempered by caution over near-term vulnerabilities

    Uncertainty in Future Growth & Dependence on Technology Upgrade Cycles

    Q3 linked future growth to customer tech roadmaps and a robust NAND upgrade cycle, addressing macro uncertainties and Q2 emphasized reliance on tech migration and the $40B NAND upgrade opportunity amid uncertain upgrade rates

    Q4 acknowledged near-term uncertainty in overall WFE spending but stressed confidence in outperforming through technology upgrades and a robust upgrade cycle

    Remains a key driver with optimistic long-term prospects while acknowledging near-term unpredictability

    Increasing Operating Expenses from R&D and Digital Transformation Investments

    Q3 reported increased R&D spending (70% of operating expenses) driven by roadmap differentiation and digital initiatives and Q2 noted moderate operating cost increases tied to higher R&D investments and digital transformation efforts

    Not specifically mentioned in Q4

    Topic is no longer highlighted in the current period, possibly indicating stabilization or reduced focus in recent commentary

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: What gross margin is expected in December?
      A: Management expects gross margins to normalize to around 48% in December due to a softer mix and higher tariff headwinds, after posting record margins in June.

    2. Revenue Outlook
      Q: Will December revenue be down?
      A: Leaders indicated that December’s revenue is likely to mirror the lower level seen in March, reflecting a normal seasonal slowdown despite strong results earlier in the year.

    3. Tech Drivers
      Q: What drives tool business outperformance?
      A: Executives highlighted key drivers such as advanced foundry logic, ALD Moly, selective etch, and enhanced advanced packaging processes that are propelling a growth rate roughly three times that of overall wafer spend.

    4. China Business
      Q: How did China revenue perform?
      A: The call noted strong performance in China with multinational customers growing over 90% quarter-over-quarter, even as domestic challenges persist.

    5. Moly Share
      Q: What is the outlook on ALD Moly share?
      A: Management stressed that, as the only firm with production ALD Moly in foundry logic, their first‐mover advantage should support a leading market share in Moly transitions.

    6. Advanced Packaging
      Q: How significant is advanced packaging for growth?
      A: The team sees advanced packaging as a robust opportunity, targeting a move from last year’s $1B to over $3B in total opportunity, driven by complex applications and strong customer adoption.

    Research analysts covering LAM RESEARCH.